Gauff faces Korneeva in Toronto, on a centre court the American has already used twice this week and the 19-year-old Russian has never seen. The ranking gap is enormous and the price reflects it. The evidence from the last few days is rather less tidy.
Two weeks heading in opposite directions
Gauff keeps winning without winning cleanly. Against Day she hit ten double faults and failed to serve the match out at 5-4; against Sakkari she led 5-1 and had to close from 5-4. The serve remains the part of her game that comes and goes in clusters, and second serves are exactly what Korneeva stands on top of.
Korneeva did not arrive by accident. She came through qualifying after recovering a set and a break, then removed Navarro and Jovic in straight sets, starting fast and taking the initiative with the first shot rather than waiting for errors. She finished match point with a winner. Her own serve is also negotiable under pressure — the second set against Jovic became a run of trades on serve.
Where the games margin sits
A favourite whose hand tightens at the finish and an opponent who returns aggressively and does not respect reputations rarely produce a blowout. The +4.5 line survives an upset, a deciding set and a compact defeat such as 4-6 4-6.
The risk is honest: Korneeva has said herself that holding one level for a full match is her weakness, and a nervous start on a new stage lets Gauff run to 6-2 6-3. The price still pays for the more likely version.
Prediction: Korneeva +4.5 games, odds 2.07
